Ascendas REIT: Short-term pain for long-term gain

Previous day closing price: $1.26
Recommendation: OUTPERFORM (maintained)
Target price: $1.67 (reduced from $2.17)
Market Cap: $1,678m

3QFY09 results were in line with Street and our expectations. DPU of 4.05cts for the quarter grew 13.9% yoy, to form 25.7% of our forecast for FY09. Gross revenue of S$102.3m was up 27.6% yoy, boosted by continued strong rental reversions for Business and Science Parks (+60.6%) and Hi-Tech (+85.8%). YTD DPU of 12.0cts forms 75.9% of our full-year estimate.

Separately, management announced an equity fund-raising via private placements and preferential offerings of up to 354m new units at an issue price of S$1.13-1.16 to raise gross proceeds of S$400m. Sponsor Ascendas will maintain its aggregate unitholding at 27.1%. The private placements conducted via accelerated book-building will be completed by market close on 16 Jan 09. Gross proceeds will be used to repay part of AREIT’s debt and fund current and/or future development projects.

Although the equity raising is within expectations, the timing comes as a surprise as refinancing with bank debt is not an immediate problem. Despite the short-term pain of DPU dilution and share overhang, AREIT will be in a better position to sit out an extended recession with improved asset leverage of 33.7%, down from 42.2%. Fears of breaching asset leverage and the pulling off of short-term revolving lines will be assuaged with its lower gearing.

After the placement, FY09 DPU would drop 0.3% to 15.71cts from 15.76cts. We expect the full impact of dilution in FY10-11, when DPU would decline by 16% and 15% respectively. Yields in FY10 based on our assumed price of equity of S$1.16 would be 11%, vs. yields of 10.2% at the current share price. Following our DPU adjustments, our DDM-derived target price (discount 8.7%) has been lowered to S$1.82. Further, to account for a likely share overhang in the short term, we lower our target price to S$1.67, which is its estimated NAV after dilution. Maintain Outperform given its relative upside to the STI.

Source: CIMB, 16 Jan 2009