Saturday, February 28, 2009

CMFAS M5 Study Notes

Chapter 1: The Regulatory Bodies and Associations

Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)

Objectives of MAS
  • Conduct monetary policy; manage the official foreign reserves and the issuance of government securities
  • Supervise and develop the financial sector

Acts Administered by MAS:
  • Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110)
  • Insurance Act (Cap. 142)
  • Banking Act (Cap. 19)
  • Exchange (Demutualisation and Mergers) Act (Cap. 99B)
  • The Currency Act (Cap.69)
  • Government Securities Act (Cap.121A)
  • Local Treasury Bills Act (Cap. 167)
Singapore Exchange Limited (SGX)

Regulatory Functions of SGX:
  • Issuer Regulation
  • Member Supervision
  • Market Surveillance
  • Enforcement
  • Risk Management
Investment Mgmt Association of Singapore (IMAS)

Objectives of IMAS. To:
  • promote professionalism in investment management;
  • provide a forum for members to discuss issues or matters relating to the investment management industry;
  • represent members’ interests and acts as voice for members;
  • promote the education of the investing public on investments generally and the investment management industry;
  • improve professionalism and standards of research and fund management expertise in Singapore; and
  • promote the investment and fund management industry.

IMAS members are governed by a Code of Ethics

Life Insurance Association of Singapore (LIA) is a trade association comprising direct insurers and reinsurers.

Mission of LIA - to promote the growth and development of the Singapore life insurance industry in consultation with the MAS and to protect the interests of life insurers and life insurance policy-owners.

Objectives Of LIA
  • development of the life insurance business in consultation with the supervisory authority, the Monetary Authority of Singapore;
  • development of industry practices; and
  • promotion of public awareness of life insurance.
Chapter 2: Financial Advisers Act and Financial Advisers Regulation

Financial Advisers Act (FAA)
  • governs financial advisory activities in respect of investment products, and the distribution or marketing of life policies and collective investment schemes, such as unit trusts
  • consolidates various Acts into a single legislation
  • provides a consistent set of requirements and regulations for intermediaries engaging in similar activities across investment products
  • provides an integrated regulatory framework and ensures consistency in requirements and uniform standards across institutions providing financial advice
Financial Advisers Regulations (FAR)
  • is a subsidiary legislation to give effect to the provisions of the FAA and sets out the rules on the application of the FAA
  • provides for exemptions from the requirements relating to licensing, approval or registration requirements, the application of the provisions under the FAA
Financial Advisers (Amendment) Act
  • principally comprises minor policy changes and technical modifications to clarify the Authority’s administration of the FAA
  • improved the language of the FAA for the better administration of the FAA, and the consistency of requirements in the FAA with those in the SFA
Key Principles of FAA and FAR
  • Customers’ Interest
  • Consistency
  • Accountability
  • Independence
Changes Made by FAA:
  • a single licensing regime for persons engaging in financial advisory activities
  • raising the standards of financial advisers and representatives - impose business conduct requirements and minimum entry and examination requirements on them respectively
  • the use of the term “financial adviser” and “life insurance broker” are restricted to persons who hold a financial adviser’s licence or are exempt financial advisers
  • licences granted to financial advisers and their representatives are valid for a period of three years
  • obligation to disclose product information on investment products and to have a reasonable basis for any recommendation made with respect to any investment product
Financial Adviser vs Financial Planner:
  • MAS regulates all financial planning activities relating to securities, futures and insurance
  • Tax, retirement and estate planning activities do not come under MAS’ supervision
Types of “financial advisory service” regulated under FAA include:
  • advising others, either directly or through publications or writings, and whether in electronic, print or other form, concerning any investment product;
  • advising others by issuing or promulgating research analyses or research reports, whether in electronic, print or other form, concerning any investment product;
  • marketing of any collective investment scheme; and
  • arranging of any contract of insurance in respect of life policies, other than a contract of reinsurance.
Investment products mean:
  • any capital markets product as defined in Section 2(1) of the Securities and Futures Act;
  • any life policy; or
  • any other product as may be prescribed. Note: With effect from 2 December 2005, MAS has prescribed structured deposits as an investment product.
Exclusions
  • General Insurance policies
  • Life Reinsurance
  • Banks Deposits
  • Loans and Mortgages
Requirements for Granting Financial Adviser’s Licence
The financial adviser’s licence will be granted only to a corporation. Applicants for the licence will have to satisfy licensing criteria, relating to:
  • financial resources;
  • competence and expertise; and
  • must satisfy MAS that it would discharge its duties efficiently, honestly and fairly.
Exempt Financial Advisers:
Section 23 of the FAA provides that the following persons shall be exempted from holding a financial adviser’s licence:
  • banks licensed under Banking Act;
  • merchant banks approved as financial institution and approved to carry on a business of providing any financial advisory service under the Monetary Authority of Singapore Act;
  • companies/societies registered under the Insurance Act;
  • holders of a capital markets services licence under the Securities and Futures Act;
  • a finance company which has been granted an exemption from Section 25(2) of the Finance Companies Act to carry on a business of providing any financial advisory service;
  • a securities exchange, a futures exchange, a recognised market operator, or an approved holding company, in respect of the provision of any financial advisory service that is solely incidental to its operation of a securities market, a futures market, or to its performance as an approved holding company, as the case may be; and
  • such other persons or classes of persons as may be prescribed.
Representatives of Financial Advisers

A representative’s licence will only be granted to a natural person who satisfy the following requirements:
  • be at least 21 years old;
  • satisfy the minimum academic qualification of at least 4 GCE ‘O’ level credit passes;
  • satisfy the fit and proper criteria;
  • satisfy the prescribed minimum examination requirements; and
  • satisfy any other criteria stipulated by MAS.
Opportunity To Be Heard applies to the 3 situations:
  • Requirements For Grant Or Renewal Of Representative’s Licence
  • Lapsing, Revocation, Suspension And Expiry Of Licence
  • On Application For Approval To Be CEO Or Director
The Authority may refuse to grant or renew the representative’s licence on the following grounds WITHOUT giving the applicant an opportunity to be heard:
  1. the applicant is an undischarged bankrupt, whether in Singapore or elsewhere;
  2. a prohibition order under Section 59 has been made by the Authority, and remains in force against the applicant;
  3. the applicant has been convicted, whether in Singapore or elsewhere, of an offence:
  • involving fraud or dishonesty or the conviction for which involved a finding that he had acted fraudulently or dishonestly;
  • punishable with imprisonment for a term of three months or more.
Return Of Licence Upon Cessation - Within 14 Days

Duration of Licence – 3 Years

One Representative One Principal Rule

No licensed representative shall at any one time, be a representative of more than one financial adviser. The objectives of this prohibition are two-fold:
  1. secure clarity for investors ; and
  2. ensure that the principal monitors and supervises their representatives at all times.
However, a licensed representative may be a representative of more than one financial adviser if the financial advisers are related corporations.

CEO and Directors of Licensed Financial Advisers
  • MAS’ approval is required prior to their appointment
  • MAS may direct the company to remove such an officer from his office if the MAS thinks it necessary in the public interest or for the protection of investors to do so
Receipt of Clients' Money or Property
  • “Client’s money or property” means money received or retained by, or property deposited with, a licensee for which he is liable to account to another person
  • Money received must be given to the right party
  • Money must be handed over not later than the next business day unless the licensee has client’s prior written consent to hand over after the specified date
  • Financial Adviser shall not receive client’s money or property in the form of cash or cheque made payable to any person (other than a person referred to in 15.2 (a), (b) or (c),) except where the cash or cheque is for services rendered by the financial adviser.
Insurance Broking Premium Accounts
Financial advisers which receive any insurance monies are required to establish and maintain a separate account with a bank licensed under the Banking Act for its life insurance broking premiums.
  • A financial adviser which receives any payment which is due to the insurer is required to pay the amount to the insurer within the credit period.
  • Interest earned during the credit period may be retained by the financial adviser for its own benefit with the insurer’s prior consent.
  • Interest earned after the credit period shall not be retained by the financial adviser for its own benefit and shall immediately be paid to the insurer to whom such payment is due.
  • Interest earned, which is due to an insurer under a contract of insurance (including a contract of insurance that has been cancelled) where cover commences before the appointed day, may be retained by the financial adviser for its own benefit.
Restriction on Granting Unsecured Loans. Section 24(3) provides that no financial adviser shall grant unsecured advance, unsecured loan or unsecured credit facility to:
  • a director of the licensed financial adviser, other than a director who is its employee; or
  • any other officer or an employee of the licensed financial adviser (including a director who is its employee) or any of its representatives which, in the aggregate and outstanding at any one time, exceeds $3,000 or such other amount as may be prescribed.
Obligation to Furnish Information to MAS:
  • A licensed financial adviser is required to prepare and lodge statements of accounts in accordance with the provisions of the Companies Act
  • Exempt financial advisers have to lodge returns such as a notice of commencement of business as a financial adviser or a notice of change of particulars
Placement of Risk with Unregistered Insurers
  • No licensed or exempt financial adviser shall negotiate any contract of insurance, whether directly or indirectly and placement of risk with unregistered insurers except where specifically permitted by MAS.
  • It does not apply to reinsurance, businesses relating to risk outside Singapore or such other risks as may be prescribed.
  • Individuals are not prohibited from purchasing life policies from unregistered overseas insurers. However, financial advisers are required to seek MAS’ approval should they wish to place their clients’ life insurance risks with unregistered overseas insurers.
  • This is to ensure that no financial adviser is being used by unregistered overseas insurers to assist them to write domestic Singapore risks, since unregistered overseas insurers are not allowed to write domestic Singapore risks.
Representations by Licensees:
  • FAA deals with representations by a financial adviser in relation to a proposed contract of insurance with the insurer.
  • It sets out the code of conduct that the financial adviser has to operate.
  • With respect to proposed contract/claim of insurance, the financial adviser cannot provide false or misleading information, or omit to disclose any matter that is material to the insurer.
  • A financial adviser shall not engage in any professional conduct involving fraud or dishonesty, trustworthiness or compromises its integrity.
Disclosure of Certain Interests in Securities

  • The financial adviser has a duty to disclose potential and actual conflict of interest to his clients or prospects. Prior to establishing a client relationship, a financial adviser should:
  1. disclose all material information or facts that might compromise its objectivity or independence or impair its ability to make unbiased and objective recommendations; and
  2. fully disclose to the clients its relationship with the financial institutions whose products it is providing advice on or recommending
  • Where such conflict of interest situations cannot be avoided, the financial adviser should ensure that its clients are treated fairly and equitably
  • Enter change in interest in securities within 7 days from date of change
Offences:
  • Any officer, auditor, employee or agent of a licensed financial adviser or an exempt financial adviser who wilfully omits, makes a false entry or alters document or statement of the business of the financial adviser shall be guilty of an offence and be liable on conviction to a fine not exceeding $100,000 or to imprisonment for a term not more than two years or to both.
  • Throughout the FAA, various provisions have stipulated the penalty to the body corporate.
  • In less serious offences, these offences may be compoundable under FAA.
Chapter 3: Written Directions

The Financial Advisers Act (FAA) (Cap.110) sets out the general principles for the regulation of financial advisers and their representatives.
Regulations are considered subsidiary legislations. Sets out rules for the application of the FAA.
Notices (also known as written directions) are issued under Section 58 of the FAA and are legally enforceable.
The difference between Notices and Regulations is that Notices specify in more detail the standards expected of financial advisers in the conduct of their business.
A contravention of any requirement specified in the FAA, Regulations and Notices is an offence under the Act.
While representatives of exempt financial advisers are not required to hold a representative’s licence, the business conduct rules of the FAA apply to them. Section 58 empowers the MAS to issue written directions to representatives of exempt financial advisers.
The MAS may, if it thinks necessary or expedient in the public interest, issue written directions.

The MAS is empowered to issue written directions on the standards with respect to qualifications, experience and training of representatives, and the reporting of misconduct.

Guidelines are issued under Section 64 of the FAA. They are intended to provide general guidance and are meant to be good practice which would apply generally across the financial advisory industry. Because Guidelines set out general guidance and good practice, they do not create any legally enforceable obligations or duties.

Obligations to be Complied when Recommending an Investment Product

The principle underlying the following obligations as set out in the “Notice On Recommendation On Investment Products” is to ensure that the prospective client makes an informed choice before he makes a purchase.

The obligations set out below shall not apply:
to any recommendation made with respect to simple life policies sold as an ancillary product to loans with a simple payment basis for the insurance cover; and
in circumstances where no recommendation is made or where only factual information is provided with respect to any investment product

Recommendations On Investment Products
Section 27 of the FAA requires licensees to have a reasonable basis for any recommendation made with respect to any investment product to a person who may reasonably be expected to rely on the recommendation.
In particular, the licensee should give due consideration to the person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.

A financial adviser who is involved in making recommendations on investment products to clients shall comply with the requirements set out in the “Notice On Recommendations On Investment Products” in relation to the following aspects:
know your client;
needs analysis; and
documentation and record keeping.

Know Your Client
The following information should be collected from the client:
financial objectives of the client;
risk tolerance of the client;
employment status of the client;
financial situation of the client, including assets, liabilities, cash flow and income;
current investment portfolio of the client, including any life policy; and
for any recommendation made in respect of life policies, the number of dependants of the client and the extent and duration of financial support required for each of the dependants.

A financial adviser should highlight the following in writing to its client:
the information provided by the client will be the basis on which the recommendation will be made; and
any inaccurate or incomplete information provided by the client may affect the suitability of the recommendation.

Needs Analysis
should explain to its client the basis for recommendation & the basis should be documented
Where the financial adviser is unable to identify a suitable product, it should inform the client accordingly
Where a client chooses not to receive any recommendation from a financial adviser, the financial adviser should ensure that there is proper documentation to demonstrate that this is so.

Documentation And Record Keeping
A financial adviser is required to furnish the following documents to a client when making a recommendation :
in the case of a collective investment scheme, a copy of the prospectus or profile statement (if applicable) issued and/or any other offer document as may be prescribed by the relevant laws
in the case of a life policy, a copy of the Product Summary and Benefit Illustration in respect of that policy.

A financial adviser should furnish to its client a document containing the following when making a recommendation in respect of a designated investment product to the client:
a summary of the information gathered by the financial adviser;
any recommendation made to the client by the financial adviser and the basis for the recommendation, and where applicable, a statement that the client does not want to:
provide any information requested by the financial adviser in accordance with Section 2.1.1 of this chapter;
accept the recommendation of the financial adviser and has chosen to purchase another designated investment product which is not recommended by the financial adviser; or
receive any recommendation from the financial adviser, before the client signs on the application form for the purchase of a designated investment product or gives his consent to dispose of a designated investment product.

Switching Of Designated Investment Products
A financial adviser should not make a recommendation to a client to switch from one designated investment product (referred to as “original product”) to another designated investment product (referred to as “replacement product”) in a manner that would be detrimental to the client.

Information to Clients And Product Information Disclosure
The “Notice On Information to Clients And Product Information Disclosure” sets out the disclosure and information obligations of a financial adviser and its representatives to clients, including when they must provide the client with investment product information.

This Notice sets out the general principles that apply to all disclosure by a financial adviser to its client. It also sets out specific requirements as to the form and manner of disclosure that financial advisers have to comply with in relation to Sections 25 and 26 of the Act, as well as to the following matters:
a. general information about the financial adviser and status of a representative;
b. remuneration of the financial adviser;
c. conflict of interest;
d. designated investment products;
e. illustration of past and future performance of designated investment products; and
marketing materials.

In addition to the obligations under Section 25 of the FAA, a financial adviser shall ensure that any statement or representation made to its clients is not false or misleading. It shall also ensure that it does not omit to disclose any matter that is material to the statement or representation made.
The general standards which a financial adviser is expected to meet in all product information disclosures and information given to clients are as follows:
Clear
Adequate
Not False or Misleading

General Information About The Financial Adviser And Status Of A Representative
A financial adviser shall disclose the following, in writing, to a client:
i. its business name, business address and telephone number;
ii. the type or types of financial advisory service that it is authorised to provide under the FAA;
iii. the type or types of investment product in respect of which it is authorised to provide financial advisory service;
iv. any other type of activity carried out by the financial adviser which is not regulated by the MAS, if any; and
v. the product providers whose products the financial adviser:
procures on behalf of its clients;
recommends or markets to its clients; or
markets to its clients on behalf of the product providers.

A licensed representative shall disclose the following, in writing, to the client:
i. his name;
ii. the financial adviser(s) for which he acts;
the type or types of financial advisory service that he is authorised to provide under the FAA; and
the type or types of investment products in respect of which he is authorised to provide financial advisory service.

Remuneration Of The Financial Adviser
a. A financial adviser is required to disclose, in writing, to a client all remuneration, including any commission, fee and other benefit that it has received or will receive that is directly related to the making of any recommendation in respect of an investment product, or executing a purchase or sale contract relating to an investment product on the client’s behalf.
b. If a financial adviser charges a fee, it should disclose to the client details of the charges at the outset.
c. If a financial adviser receives commissions from a product provider on investment products sold on behalf of the product provider, it should disclose to the client the amount of commissions it receives on the investment products it recommends.
d. Where a financial adviser receives trailer commission, soft commission or such other benefit from a product provider, it should disclose to the client the amount of such commission and benefit.
e. Where the amount of remuneration, commission fee or benefit is not quantifiable, a financial adviser should furnish its client with a description of how it will be remunerated.
f. If the precise rate of remuneration or value of commission is not known in advance, the financial adviser should estimate the rate likely to apply in such description.
g. In the case of a life policy, a financial adviser should disclose to its client the “distribution cost” item in the Benefit Illustration (where a Benefit Illustration is available in respect of the life policy)

Conflict Of Interest
A financial adviser should disclose, in writing, to its clients any actual or potential conflict of interest arising from any connection to or association with any product provider, including any material information or facts that may compromise its objectivity or independence in its provision of financial advisory services.

Designated Investment Products
When making a recommendation on any designated investment product to a client, a financial adviser is required to disclose the following information to the client in a form and manner that is clear, adequate and not false or misleading:
Nature and Objective of the Product
Details of the Product Provider
Contractual Rights
Client Profile
Commitment Required From the Client
Benefits of the Product
Risks of the Product
Pricing of the Product
Fees and Charges to be Borne by the Client
Reports to the Client
Free-Look for Life Policies
Cancellation Period for Unit Trust
Withdrawal, Surrender or Claim
Warnings, Exclusions and Disclaimers

Illustration Of Past And Future Performance Of Designated Investment Products
A financial adviser shall comply with the following with respect to any illustration of past and future performance of any designated investment product:
the financial adviser shall not disclose (whether orally or in writing) any matter in respect of the future performance of a collective investment scheme, unless that matter is disclosed in the registered prospectus of the scheme;
when using any forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market and economic trends of the markets, it shall advise the client that such forecast is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the product;
when using past performance of the product to illustrate possible returns for that product, it should advise the client that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The source of data used in the illustration should be provided by the product provider or an independent agency, and be made known to the client;
iv. when advising on a life policy, it should make reference to the Benefit Illustration in respect of that life policy (where a Benefit Illustration is available in respect of that life policy); and
v. when advising on a collective investment scheme, it should not make any prediction, projection or forecast on the future or the likely performance of the collective investment scheme, except to the extent permitted under Clause 1 of Appendix 3B of the text.

When advising on a collective investment scheme, a financial adviser may disclose orally to a client any information on past or future performance contained in the registered prospectus of the scheme if and only if such disclosure is made at the same time as a copy of the prospectus is given to the client, and the financial adviser:
draws the attention of the client to all assumptions, warning statements and other information relating to the past or future performance that are contained in the prospectus; and
ii. where the last day of the period to which the past performance relates is more than three months prior to the date of disclosure, informs the client of this fact

Marketing Materials
A financial adviser shall ensure that all its marketing materials comply with the relevant guidelines issued by the MAS and/or industry association
A representative shall only use marketing materials approved by the financial adviser for which he acts
Where a financial adviser engages in the marketing of designated investment products using direct response advertising communications, it shall include, in all its marketing materials, prominent warning that:
a. the client may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase the product; and
b. in the event that the client chooses not to seek advice from a financial adviser, he should consider whether the product in question is suitable for him

The “Notice On Reporting Of Misconduct Of Representatives By Financial Advisers” sets out the responsibilities and reporting requirements of financial advisers for the misconduct of their representatives.

A financial adviser shall submit to the MAS, not later than 14 days after the end of each quarter, reports of any disciplinary action taken against its representatives for misconduct including formal warnings issued to the representatives during the preceding quarter:
Acts Involving Fraud, Dishonesty or Other Offences of a Similar Nature
Acts Involving Inappropriate Advice, Misrepresentation or Inadequate Disclosure of Information
Failure to Satisfy the Guidelines on Fit and Proper Criteria
Other Misconduct: any type of misconduct other than those set out in sub-paragraphs (a) to (c), resulting in
non-compliance with any regulatory requirement relating to the provision of any financial advisory service under the Act; or
a serious breach of the financial adviser’s internal policy or code of conduct which would render the representative liable to demotion, suspension or termination of the representative’s employment or arrangement with the financial adviser
in the form set out in this Notice

The “Notice On Appointment And Use Of Introducers By Financial Advisers” shall apply to all licensed financial advisers and persons who are exempt from holding a financial adviser’s licence under Section 23(1)(a) to (e) of the FAA.

Requirement For Financial Advisers Appointing Introducers
Where a financial adviser appoints a person as an introducer, it should take reasonable steps not to appoint an introducer whose carrying out of introducing activities is its sole business activity or his full time occupation if the introducer is a corporation or an individual respectively.
A financial adviser should ensure that none of its employees or representatives enters into any arrangement with an introducer to carry out introducing activities other than on behalf of the financial adviser.
A financial adviser which engages the services of an introducer should institute adequate control systems and procedures.

In engaging an introducer to carry out introducing activities, the financial adviser is required to comply with the following requirements:
Written Agreement
Disclosure by Introducer
Provision of Script for Use by Introducers
Prohibition on Handling of Client’s Money or Property by Introducers
Maintenance of Register of Introducers

The “Notice On Minimum Entry And Examination Requirements For Representatives Of Licensed Financial Advisers And Exempt Financial Advisers” sets out the following:
minimum entry requirements;
application of the Capital Markets and Financial Advisory Services Examination (CMFAS Exam) requirements;
c. circumstances under which the CMFAS Exam requirements do not apply;
d. continuing education requirements for representatives.

MAS Notice 117 requires such representatives to obtain the requisite qualification in health insurance before they can provide any advice on or arrange such policies or both, unless the representatives fall within paragraph 6 or 7 of MAS Notice 117.

Minimum Entry Requirements
Application Of CMFAS Exam Requirements
Circumstances Under Which The CMFAS Exam Requirements Do Not Apply
Re-Taking Of Module 5
Continuing Education Requirements For Representatives

The “Notice On Prohibited Representations Made By Persons Exempted Under Regulation 27(1)(D) Of The Financial Advisers Regulations (Rg 2)” sets out certain prohibitions in respect of representations made by exempt persons and representatives of exempt persons regarding their exempt status.
Example:
An exempt person and its representatives shall not represent itself, nor cause to be represented, as being licensed, regulated, supervised or registered by the MAS, whether verbally or in writing.

The “Notice On Dual Currency Investments” applies to any licensed or exempt financial adviser or its representative, who advises on any dual currency investment.
Use Of The Term “Deposit” And “Structured Deposit”
Additional Product Information Disclosure
Warnings
Guidelines On Structured Deposits

Gold Stock Pressure, With Or Without Gold Prices

Gold Stock Pressure, With Or Without Gold Prices (EGO, RGLD, IAG, GSS, GLD, GDX, ABX)
Posted: February 27, 2009 at 9:03 am

http://247wallst.com/2009/02/27/gold-stock-pressure-with-or-without-gold-prices-ego-rgld-iag-gss-gld-gdx-abx/

We covered last weekend about how the $1,000.00 gold was at an inflection point and looking as though it was either poised to pop to $1,200.00 on the speculation of fear or that it was likely to fall back towards $800.00 as reality prevails as the world didn’t flatten and proceed to roll off the edge into the abyss. What is interesting is that even as gold was hitting highs, many of the miners, particularly the speculative miners, were well under highs and have seen even worse pressure this week on gold’s pullback.

When Eldorado Gold Corporation (AMEX:EGO) withdrew its planned offering of common stock on Tuesday, its shares and those of competitor miners fell sharply. Eldorado opened the day at $9.34 and closed it at $8.19, off more than 12%. Royal Gold Corporation (NASDAQ:RGLD) fell from $44.85 to $41.22, down about 8%; IAMGold dropped from $8.74 to close at $7.66, down more than 12%; and Gold Star Resources, Ltd. (NYSE:GSS) dropped from $1.40 to $1.16, off about 17%.

Two gold ETFs, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) and Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE:GDX) both fell sharply as well, but both have recovered some as of yesterday’s close. Gold Shares invests in bullion and Gold Miners invests in mining stocks. Gold Shares is down about 5% as of yesterday’s close, while Gold Miners is down about 9%.

Miners, especially the smaller ones like Eldorado and Royal Gold, will continue to struggle with liquidity as the economy remains sour. Mining ETFs like Market Vectors Gold Miners will follow along because the large gold miners like Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX) included in the fund are also struggling to lower costs and increase production.

Gold bullion investors, like SPDR Gold Shares, will follow the economic news. Bullion fell sharply yesterday to close just above $940/ounce, down from about $945/ounce the previous day. European and Asian markets are lower today, so gold has recovered a bit to about $958/ounce. When inflation fears rise, bullion rises sharply, as it did last week, when it closed above $1,000/ounce.

Paul Ausick
February 27, 2009

Friday, February 27, 2009

Parkway: Kitchen sinking - HOLD (DBS)

HOLD (maintained) $1.17 (STI: 1,1617.44)
Price Target: 12-month S$1.28
PE (X): 2008A - 31.9, 2009F - 14.5
Net Div Yield: 2008A - 2.1%, 2009F - 5.2%

FY08 headline profit fell by 88% to $34.8m on several one-off charges. Excluding those items, net profit at $89.8m was within expectations. We expect to see launch of sale of medical suites by mid’09. Restructuring and cost savings may provide upside to our forecasts. However, we believe uncertainty over take up of medical suites and high cost of investment may cap gains in near term. Maintain Hold, TP: S$1.28.

Excluding exceptional one-off items (see pg 2), Parkway’s net profit at $89.8m was within our expectations. Revenue grew 9% to S$945.4m on contribution from its Hospital and Healthcare divisions. Admissions for Singapore dipped 3.8%, offset by 10% in day cases. As a result, average occupancy dropped to 59.9% (FY08), from 64.6% (FY07). Revenue PAPD (Per Adjusted Patient Day) in Singapore grew 6% to S$1,853. Group operating margins dipped by 2.1% on higher rentals (paid to the REIT), partially offset by a lower increase in depreciation and staff costs.

As indicated previously, we do not see funding issues for its Novena hospital project. About $1bn of loan has been drawn down with additional $300m facility available. The Group has $542m in cash. Net D/E stands at 0.53x with an interest cover of c.9x. The Group is expected to launch first phase of 80 units of medical suites in mid’09, at ASP between $3,200 to $5,000 psf.

Valuations appear to be low relative to historical value. There could be upside in our forecasts arising from its restructuring and cost savings. However, we believe the uncertainty over the take-up rate and ASP of the medical suites at the new Novena Hospital would continue to weigh down this counter in the near term. As such, we maintain our Hold recommendation. Our TP of $1.28 is unchanged.

Parkway Holdings FY08 Review - SELL (DMG)

SELL - Downgrade
Price: S$1.17
Target: S$0.92
Div Yield: FY07 - 33.9%, FY09F - 16.9%
P/E: FY08 - 33.9x, FY09F - 16.9x
P/B: FY08 - 1.0x, FY09F - 1.0x

Parkway recorded an 88% decline in FY08 net profit to S$35.8m, despite achieving a 9% increase in revenue. This was due to the exceptional items (provisions and losses) recorded for the year. Included in FY07 results was the gain on disposal of its hospitals to PREIT. Excluding these items, net profit would have risen 5% to S$89.8m. The bulk of the exceptional items were a provision for impairment loss on receivables (S$34.4m) and the impairment loss on the Group’s investment in Auric Pacific (S$16.2m). Management was unable to disclose additional information relating to the provision for impairment loss on receivables as it is in the process of taking legal action to recover the amount.

Parkway had intended to launch the sale of its Novena medical suites in 1H09. Management indicated that as the recession continues to unfold, it has yet to decide on a selling price for the suites, although it is looking at the range of S$3,200 to S$4,300 psf. It plans to launch the medical suites in phases, and may inject unsold units into PREIT. We have not factored in any sales of medical suites into our forecasts.

We cut our FY09 net profit forecast by 25% to S$78.0m, taking into consideration a decline in its Singapore hospital revenue and slower revenue growth in other segments. We cut our target price by 36% to S$0.92, based on 13x blended forward earnings (about 10% premium over peers). This is a 22% downside from current levels. Hence, we downgrade our recommendation to SELL.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Gold - Haring away

Feb 26th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Burnished by bad news, gold looks like a good each-way bet
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13185396

IT IS 1979 and Harry “Rabbit” Angstrom, the hero of John Updike’s series of novels, is explaining to his wife why he has just spent more than $11,000 on 30 gold krugerrands. “The beauty of gold is, it loves bad news,” he says. Three decades later, gold is once again thriving on despair. Before Christmas, a troy ounce could be bought for around $800. By the third week in February, gold was trading at close to $1,000 an ounce.

A surge in demand for gold as an investment lies behind the jump in prices. Flows into exchange-traded funds, which buy and store gold for their shareholders, rose from 105 tonnes in January to 208 tonnes in the first three weeks of February, according to Suki Cooper at Barclays Capital. At that rate, inflows will soon surpass the total of 322 tonnes for the whole of 2008. Buying by investors has more than made up for a slump in gold-jewellery purchases in key markets, such as India and Turkey, where higher prices and wilting exchange rates have crushed demand.

How high might the gold price go? Gold bugs talk excitedly about it reaching $2,300, which would match the January 1980 peak in real terms (see chart). Already the gold price is above its average since 1972 when calculated in today’s money. There is a limited supply of gold and lots of potential buyers—ideal conditions for a bubble, says Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley. If gold is burnished by grim news, it seems likely to become still more alluring.

815 BTO flats for sale

Home > Breaking News > Singapore > Story
Feb 26, 2009
By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent, The Straits Times

THE Housing Board on Thursday launched its first build-to-order flat sale this year, with 815 flats in Woodlands up for grabs.

Called Champions Court, the batch of flats will include 224 units of studio apartments - offered for the first time in Woodlands.

There are also 182 units of three-room flats, 224 units of four-room flats and 185 units of five-room flats.

Champions Court is near Woodlands Regional Centre.

In a statement on Thursday, HDB said the new flats in Champions Court are priced below their equivalent market prices to ensure that they are affordable to first-time buyers.

The three-room flats range from $118,000 to $142,000, four-room flats from $194,000 to $227,000 and five-room flats from $247,000 to $296,000.

In the resale market, comparable three-room flats go for $200,000 to $209,000, while the four-room units go for $255,000 to $278,000, according to data provided by HDB.

Comparable five-room flats cost $304,000 to $345,000, it said.

The studio apartments are priced from $57,000 to $80,000.

Applications can be submitted online from Feb 26 to March 11.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Macquarie Internetional Infrastructure Fund FY2008 Results

Financial Highlights

MIIF achieved a net income on an adjusted basis of S$115.8 million for the year ended 31 December 2008, up from S$96.2 million in the prior corresponding period. The increase in MIIF’s net income was primarily due to: Distributions from MIIF’s new unlisted businesses: Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) and Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC) which offset a reduction in distributions from MIIF’s listed investments sold during 2007 and 2008. In addition, net foreign exchange gains of S$6.8 million were recognised in 2008 primarily due to the realisation of MIIF’s distribution hedges.

MIIF’s total operating expenses of S$19.3 million were 45.3 per cent lower than the prior year, driven by lower management fees and reduced interest expenses as a result of lower company-level borrowings.

MIIF’s Net Asset Value (NAV) per share as at 31 December 2008 was S$0.97, compared with S$1.28 as at 31 December 2007 and S$1.12 as at 30 September 2008. The decrease reflects the impact of significant foreign exchange movements (particularly the devaluation in Pound Sterling), weaker asset-level revenue forecasts as a result of the global economic slowdown, lower inflation expectations, and tight credit markets.
Consequently, revaluation losses of S$287.7 million for the year ended 31 December 2008 (2007: gains of S$338.6 million) were reported in MIIF’s statutory accounts.

These unrealised losses do not impact MIIF’s cash flows and its ability to pay dividends in the current period.

All borrowings held by the underlying businesses are non-recourse to MIIF and have substantial remaining terms of between two and 14 years, with the earliest maturing in 2011. Long-term borrowings are well matched to the long-term cash flows generated by these businesses.

The Board declared a final dividend of 3.00 cps for the six months to 31 December 2008, which is in line with previous guidance.

ABOUT MIIF

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Limited (MIIF or the Company), a Bermuda-registered mutual fund company, is a leading Asia-listed private owner and operator of infrastructure businesses. MIIF has significant investments in toll roads, ports, communications and broadcast infrastructure, transport infrastructure, renewable energy, and aged-care infrastructure, among others.

MIIF was the first infrastructure fund to list on the main board of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX-ST). MIIF listed on the SGX-ST on 27 May 2005 and has over 7,700 investors, including retail investors and some of the world’s foremost institutional investors.

MIIF is an Asian-focused listed infrastructure fund managed by Macquarie Infrastructure Management (Asia) Pty Limited (MIMAL), part of Macquarie Capital Funds which, through special purpose management companies, has approximately A$52 billion (S$52.9 billion) of equity under management as at 31 December 2008.

DIVIDEND POLICY

MIIF's dividend policy is based on the anticipated cash flows from its investments. MIIF intends to pay out as ordinary dividends to shareholders the majority of normal distributions received from MIIF’s investment and not to retain significant cash balances in excess of prudent reserves. Prudent reserves are required to ensure that MIIF remains solvent and that, amongst other things, operating costs such as finance costs, audit fees, registry fees and hedging costs are adequately provided for. Should MIIF receive additional cash receipts from its business which are of a non-recurring nature, as a result of capital management initiatives such as refinancing or asset sales, these proceeds would be distributed by way of a special distribution. MIIF declares and pays regular semi-annual cash dividends on all outstanding shares.

As a Bermudian incorporated company, MIIF is governed by the Bermuda Companies Act 1981. The Bermuda Companies Act 1981 allows companies that are governed by it to declare and pay dividends to shareholders in excess of accounting profits and reserves. Consequently, it is possible that the dividends that MIIF’s Board of Directors (The Board) intends to declare and pay for the period exceeds the total of MIIF’s retained earnings and accounting profits generated for the period. Such situations may arise as a result of unrealised losses that MIIF is required to recognise due to movements in its foreign exchange rates, changes in the value of MIIF’s unlisted securities and other business specific and general economic factors. These unrealised losses do not impact MIIF’s cash flow and its ability to pay dividends in the current period.

TAXATION

As MIIF is incorporated in Bermuda and is not a resident in Singapore for tax purposes, dividends paid by MIIF will be regarded as foreign-source income. The foreign dividend is subject to Singapore corporate income tax when received in Singapore by corporate shareholders. Foreign dividends received by foreign investors with no permanent establishment in Singapore are generally not subject to Singapore income tax. Foreign dividends received by individuals in Singapore (whether resident or otherwise) are exempt from Singapore income tax.

Description of investment income

MIIF has progressively disposed of its entire interest in the listed investments DUET Group (DUET), Macquarie Airports (MAp), Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group (MCG) and Macquarie Infrastructure Company (MIC) since the second-half of 2007. These divestments were consistent with MIIF’s focus on direct investments and on-going efforts to rebalance its portfolio towards the Asian region. As a result of these disposals, MIIF’s income in 2008 was solely derived from its unlisted investments.

Borrowings

Stand-alone company borrowings decreased from $178.2 million as at 31 December 2007 to $20.0 million as at 31 December 2008. This reduction was primarily due to the repayment of MIIF’s outstanding borrowings from proceeds received from the sale of MAp.

Group short term borrowings includes Miaoli Wind’s consolidated short term borrowings of $5.5 million.

Group long term borrowings have increased to $86.5 million as at 31 December 2008 due to the consolidation of Miaoli Wind’s long term borrowings which are non-recourse to MIIF. Equipment, building, cash and shares of Miaoli Wind were pledged with the lender as collateral for the borrowings of $92.0 million.

NET ASSET VALUE

MIIF uses the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach to value its investments. These valuations reflect the fair value for which infrastructure assets could be exchanged between knowledgeable, willing parties in an orderly arm’s length transaction.

MIIF calculates the fair value of each of its assets at the end of each calendar quarter and adjusts the carrying value of each investment to its fair value. This process generates revaluation gains and losses, which are reported in the Group Income Statement as Net gains/losses on financial assets at fair value through profit or loss.

To ensure that the DCF analysis continues to provide a fair value estimate that can be considered reliable, the valuation model is periodically benchmarked to other sources such as recent market transactions to ensure that the discounted cash flow valuation is providing a reliable measure.

Source: SGX Quarterly Report for the quarter and year ended 31 December 2008

SingTel: Optus rebound not in the price - BUY (Macquarie)

In this note, we discuss some of the key issues and drivers of the medium-term outlook for the core Singapore/Optus business.
  • We view the Vodafone-Hutch merger as a positive catalyst for Optus because it should boost long-term margins. It is perhaps worth noting that Optus’s mobile margins have plummeted from around 40% in 2005 to around 27% today due to increased competition from Vodafone (subsidiary VOD LN, £1.26, Underperform, TP: £1.25) and Hutch (HTA AU, A$0.10, OP, TP: A$0.17). Rationalization of market structure is a “game changer,” and we expect the outlook to improve from here on.
  • Recessionary conditions, the effect of the government’s broadband project (NBN) and potential pay-TV price competition are key issues for the Singapore market. We think the NBN project is likely to be a non-event and argue that threats from new entrants (like MobileOne M1 SP, S$1.57, OP, TP: S$1.75) remain low. We arrive at this conclusion based on our assumption that NBN retail pricing is likely to be around S$70/user, which is significantly higher than most of the prevailing broadband price plans. The market may not be big enough for new entrants due to the limited market size – we estimate that only a small part of the broadband user base (~13%) currently subscribes to broadband plans with speeds >10Mbps.
Singapore National Broadband Network – likely to be a non-event with SingTel’s win
In our recent meetings, we found that some investors were concerned about the effect of the national broadband network on SingTel’s businesses. In particular, some view NBN as a positive catalyst for No. 3 player MobileOne and a negative for incumbents SingTel/StarHub because it gives them the opportunity to bundle services.

Control of the NBN project is far-more important for SingTel than for StarHub, because it needs to mitigate risks to its corporate revenues and also secure its technology roadmap beyond the current theoretical limits of its ADSL 2+ network (25Mbps).

The project is divided into two phases and a SingTel consortium has already won the first phase, called NetCo. The results for tenders of the second phase will be known in 1Q09, and we expect SingTel to win the project with wholesale pricing of around S$15/residential sub.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Is the cash really there?

AsiaOne.com
Mon, Feb 23, 2009
The Business Times
Is the cash really there?
By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

BASED on its latest available financial statements, that would be for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2008, C&G Industrial had a cash balance net of debts of about 408 million yuan. That worked out to cash per share of 0.87 yuan, or about 19.4 cents. As of yesterday, the manufacturer and distributor of PET chips and yarn products for the textile industry in China last changed hands at 8 cents a share.

Meanwhile, China's largest nylon manufacturer Li Heng's cash net of debts per share worked out to 23.6 cents. The shares last traded at 20.5 cents.

China Paper, which manufactures and distributes mixed-pulp based paper products to over 320 publishing houses, printing companies and other paper distributors throughout China, had 18.5 cents cash and no debts on its balance sheet as at end September 2008. Its share price, as of last Friday, was 16.5 cents.

At least in the former two companies, business prospects have taken a turn for the worse. Both have issued profit warnings. But for China Paper, its business seems to be still holding up well, based on its last financial reports.

Is the market being irrational? Well, maybe, maybe not!

As a head of research from a local broking firm quipped when asked to comment on the seemingly bottomless pit that China stocks are sinking into: 'All didn't do well in the results so far. Some are sitting on such embarrassing amount of cash, but there's still no sight of dividends for some. This raises the question: 'Is the cash really really there?' The Satyam Syndrome can be deadly if not treated early!'

Well even if the cash is there, if shareholders can only see and not touch, and worse still if investors can only watch while management fritter away the cash in unwise investments, then there are ample reasons for investors to place a discount on the cash.

Take the case of AEI Corporation. The manufacturer and trader of aluminium extrusion sections, metal materials and other related products, which was listed on the main board of Singapore Exchange in 2004, has been in a cash flow positive business. As at June 30, 2008, it had cash of $26.8 million, and no debts. That's down slightly from $28.5 million cash in the beginning of the year. The cash worked out to be about 10 cents per share.

Seeing such a clean balance sheet, and a business that, albeit small, was generating positive cash flow, some value investors no doubt would have been tempted to buy the stock. And to be fair, the company did pay out dividend of about one cent a share every year since it was listed in 2004. One cent, on its initial public offering price of 28 cents, worked out to a dividend yield of 3.6 per cent a year.

With over 200 million shares outstanding and a dividend payout of one cent a share, the total payout amounted to over $2 million a year. According to the group's cash flow statements, it generated cash of $10 million from its operations in 2007 and $3.5 million in 2006.

But the unfortunate part is how the management had decided to do with the cash that it had opted to retain.

In June 20, 2007, AEI granted Hoi Po Metal Manufacturing a convertible loan sum of HK$20.49 million ($4 million). Hoi Po owns Dongguan Gaobao Aluminium Mfy. Co and Dongguan Gaobao Aluminium Melting & Casting Mfy. Co. The former is engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of aluminium products and the latter in the melting and casting of aluminium products.

The proceeds of the convertible loan are for Hoi Po to acquire plant and machinery and its other working capital purposes.

The aim of granting the convertible loan is so that AEI, at its option, can acquire an equity stake in Hoi Po. That investment, according to AEI, would allow it to access Hoi Po's product design, mould making and extrusion technology. This would provide it a lower cost platform to expand its own production capacity. The rationale made sense.

Nine months after the convertible loan agreement, AEI announced that instead of converting the loan into shares in the capital of Hoi Po, it had on March 26, 2008, entered into a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Hoi Po to set up a joint venture company to manufacture and sell aluminium products in China. The joint venture company, however, would buy over the assets of Hoi Po's two subsidiaries. The assets, however, were mostly mortgaged to various financial institutions in Hong Kong and in China.

Two weeks ago, AEI announced that the global financial crisis had affected the proposed joint venture's business prospects. And because its offer to purchase the assets for the joint venture from the Hong Kong and China financiers at a discounted rate were unsuccessful, it has decided not to proceed with the joint venture.

It is now rigorously pursuing its claims against Hoi Po to repay the convertible loan of about $4.04 million. Until the amount is recovered, AEI said it has provided for impairment of the total outstanding convertible amount in the year ended Dec 31, 2008.

Ok, as mentioned, the initial rationale for making the convertible loan made sense. The current financial crisis was not anticipated. So it is indeed excusable that the deal didn't work out as planned. And the benefit of the doubt is given to the management for having done the proper due diligence before making that $4 million convertible loan.

But the second investment done by AEI is more perplexing. In July 2008, AEI said it had entered into another convertible loan agreement, this time with M2B World Asia Pacific.

The loan amount was US$2.5 million, from July 8, 2008 until July 7, 2010. And M2B is an Internet TV operator whose business model was unproven and which had yet to make any sustainably decent profits.

What's an aluminium extrusion company investing in an Internet TV operator? And worse still, M2B was actually to be injected into Auston in a reverse takeover deal. After evaluating the deal, the Singapore Exchange rejected the proposal of the reverse takeover in January 2008, presumably because SGX didn't think the M2B business model was viable.

So what's AEI doing extending a convertible loan to M2B after it was denied entry into the Singapore bourse by SGX?

AEI said the convertible loan, should it decide to convert, would 'allow it to diversify its investment portfolio and give it an opportunity to participate in the growing new media broadband industry'. Furthermore, the convertible loan would provide it an enhanced yield of 5 per cent per year, it added.

As of today, it is not known how M2B World Asia Pacific is doing. But in an environment where even the most established of businesses are struggling, it in inconceivable that one with an unproven business model can do well.

So given the management's rather questionable decisions, it is no wonder that AEI is trading at 6 cents compared with its cash per share of 10 cents a share.

But even for big companies with a large cash pile that we know with a great degree of certainty is there, there is no guarantee that the management will not try to be too clever with the management of their cash pile.

A case in point is Venture Corp. This week, the contract manufacturer reported an applaudable set of results. Adjusted for one-off items, net profit for the whole year registered a decline of 10 per cent to $280 million, not a bad performance at all when compared to the dismal results of its peers.

The drag - its fourth quarter net profit declined 94 per cent to $5 million - was due to an additional provision of $58 million for impairment in collaterised debt obligations (CDOs) that it bought in 2004.

Venture had bought CDOs in 2004 to improve returns on its cash pile. The CDOs held by Venture were worth about $209 million in late August last year. The current value, as at end December, was $18.8 million.

What business does an electronics manufacturer have investing in derivatives? The consolation is Venture has been managing its core business well, and has been pretty generous in distributing its cash as dividends as well. It declared a 50 cents dividend, or 12 per cent yield compared to its recently traded share price. And it's been doing that for the past four years. Which is why investors were cheering it yesterday, sending the stock 7.3 per cent higher despite a totally depressing day in the stock market. We're sure Venture has learnt its lesson.

The writer is a CFA charterholder.

This article was first published in The Business Times.

DJIA in advanced stage of wave 5 move

US indices have been in a downtrend for a month amid concerns over banking stocks, in particular Citigroup and Bank of America, with persistent rumours over their nationalisation by the US Government. Both stock gapped down on Friday but closed off their lows well below opening levels. Both stocks have fallen by more than 50% since February, suggesting the market is heavily betting on nationalisation.

For the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), we were on record as saying that a wave 5 move would eventually unfold and that the index should decline towards 6,900. This view remains valid. There is a strong likelihood this level would head to that level over the next seven days. We highlight two possible scenarios in this report. One is that the index is tracing out in a normal impulsive wave 5 decline towards 6,900 and the other, that the index traces out in a descending triangle formation or what is known as diagonal fifth in Elliott wave terminology. In both cases, we expect the index to test the 6,900 level. The positive divergence on momentum indicators suggests this is a terminal move and once complete, would give way to a significant rebound.

For Singapore, the minimum downside was the gap at 1,678. The index had declined below that level and the next important support is the November low at 1,570.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

MCL Land FY08 Results - HOLD (Kim Eng)

Previous Day Closing price: $0.66
Recommendation: HOLD (maintained)
Target price: $0.74 (reduced from $0.89)
Yield: 2008 - 15.2%, 2009F - 9.1%

MCL Land took a hefty US$180.2m write down of development properties for sale to post an FY08 net loss of US$107.3m, compared to a net profit of US$61.9m last year. Omitting the write down, core profits were actually in line with expectations, improving 23% yoy, following the completion of The Grange, Mera Springs and The Esta in FY08.

MCL has become the first developer under our coverage to make a write down of its landbank, and the scale of the write down is much larger than the US$28m we had expected. We estimate that the management is forecasting property values to decline by about 20% on the average, prompting the prudent write down.

The Group expects The Fernhill, Tierra Vue and Hillcrest Villa to be completed this year, Waterfall Gardens and D’Pavillion to be completed in 2010 and the Peak@Balmeg in 2011. The progress of the sales of new units at the Peak@Balmeg and D’Pavillion has been slow, with 25% and 28% of the units being committed for sale respectively, but cash flows will continue to come in from the other projects under construction.

We expect MCL to continue to market the remaining units at the Peak@Balmeg and D’Pavillion in phases. New launches are likely to be phased out further into the future. Having already been written down based on current weak market conditions, these future projects could still turn profitable when they are subsequently launched at a time when the market has recovered.

MCL’s balance sheet remains strong with a net gearing of about 0.5x, which we expect to be pared down as projects become completed this year and next. However, it has a high exposure to the mid-end residential segment, which may continue to see weak demand as the recession persists. Maintaining our HOLD recommendation with a target price of $0.74, pegged to a 70% discount to RNAV.

Cosco Corp: Results Preview - HOLD (Kim Eng)

Previous Day Closing price: $0.785
Recommendation: Hold (maintained)
Target price: $1.35 (maintained)

Cosco Corp will be releasing its FY08 results this evening (23rd February 2009). We are expecting FY08 earnings to come in at around S$320m, versus consensus at S$330m. Our forecast is consistent with Cosco’s profit guidance made at the end of last year, stating that FY08 earnings will be lower than FY07. In context, Cosco recorded net profit of S$336.6m for FY07. With Cosco already having posted net earnings of S$326.5m for the first 9M08, the implied lowered loss in 4Q08 will mainly be due to provisions for doubtful debts.

Looking beyond FY08 results, we expect Cosco to earn S$408.2m in FY09, but once again, this may be hampered by further contract delays and cost overruns. While Cosco has consistently paid a healthy dividend of between 40-45% of its earnings in the past 3 years, we believe that this may be reduced due to 1) a much more challenging environment 2) decelerating earnings and 3) a more conservative stance adopted by the company under the new President.

Our SOTP fair value stands at S$1.35. Despite the potential upside, we are maintaining our recommendation at Hold, as we are still unable to determine the full level of provisioning at this point, raising the risk of further earnings downgrades. Cosco’s Price to Book stands at 1.5x, on Book Value of S$0.52.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Property Sector: Playing the absolute numbers game (DBS)

By:Adrian Chua

The media reported today that a number of units at Alexis have appeared on the subsale market. Some mass market projects are also looking to be relaunched - with a discount - to woo pent-up demand, as developers take the opportunity to move some unsold stock. However, pent-up demand on the high-end market is still lacking, and it is this segment which reflects confidence more succinctly compared to the mass market, which tends to be dominated by owner-occupiers. Pent-up demand in select segments and discounting by developers do not signal a recovery. Maintain Cautious, and avoid high-end plays like SC Global (Fully Valued, TP S$0.42), Ho Bee (Fully Valued, S$0.34) and Wing Tai (Fully Valued, S$0.5Cool. Our buy calls are City Dev (Buy, S$6.74) and Wheelock Properties (Buy, S$1.1)

Alexis Units on Offer in Subsale Market. There were media reports today that a number of units at Alexis, which was sold out this weekend, have appeared on the subsale market.Units are reportedly going for a 10% premium to sale price. At the highest reported ASP of c.S$1,100 psf sold by the developer, this would translate to an offer price on the subsale market that is close to the peak S$1,250 psf achieved by nearby The Anchorage back in 1Q08 (notwithstanding the fact that said Anchorage unit is 144sqm with a price tag close to S$2mil). This reiterates what we had indicated in our earlier note on the Alexis - that the small quantum (absolute number) is what is driving sales for the project.

Price-Cutting By Developers, Sensing Momentum. This does not change the fact that there are some notable developers that have made the move to discount prices for some of their unsold-but-launched units, despite the fact that these developments were already largely below the S$800K "comfort zone" in the first place. In other words, developers are taking the opportunity of the appearance of pent-up demand in the mass market to move some unsold stock, albeit at a discount - which is different from developers suddenly realising that S$800K is a "comfort level". There is a fine line between finding an excuse and finding a reason. As reported, City Dev has relaunched a small number of units (30-50 units) at Livia at a c.5% discount to its previous launch price of around S$650 psf. We also understand that F&N will be relaunching some less-choice units at Waterfront Waves (Bedok Reservoir) at around S$650 psf, about 15-20% below its launch price of c.S$800 psf. GuocoLand will also try to move its remaining 182 unsold units at The Quartz (Buangkok) at around S$595 psf, which is just above our breakeven estimate and about 10% below its launch price of c.S$650 psf. It has good reason to do this - the project obtains TOP middle of this year, and the pressure to sell the remaining units will start to mount.

Maintain Cautious, Avoid High-End Plays. Many of the development looking to be relaunched (as highlighted above) have a substantial number of unsold units. Given that these developments have seen slow sales over the past few months, we believe the developers of these projects are now taking the opportunity to move more stock upon the sign of pent-up demand, and trading ASPs for sales, which has long been factored in and expected by the market. Pent-up demand on the high-end market, however, is still sorely lacking. Any developer looking to price above S$1,000 psf would have to take a leaf out of Alexis' book - play the absolute numbers game and go for smaller units. Unfortunately, confidence in the overall physical market is derived less from mass market offerings (which cater more to owner-occupation). Evidence of pent-up demand and developers discounting their unsold mass market properties to move stock do not signal a recovery, in our opinion. We remain Cautious on the developers and would avoid the high-end names - which are seeing no signs of pent-up demand as yet. We have Fully Valued calls on SC Global (Fully Valued, TP S$0.42); Ho Bee (Fully Valued, S$0.34) and Wing Tai (Fully Valued, S$0.5). Our buy calls are City Dev (Buy, S$6.74) and Wheelock Properties (Buy,S$1.1).

$800 or $1,200 Gold, Panic Vs. Inflation

$800 or $1,200 Gold, Panic Vs. Inflation, ETF’s (GLD, UGL, DZZ, DGP, DGZ, GDX)
Posted: February 21, 2009 at 8:43 am

http://247wallst.com/2009/02/21/800-or-1200-gold-panic-vs-inflation-etfs-gld-ugl-dzz-dgp-dgz-gdx/

We have probably covered more gold stocks over the last couple of months than we care to recall, but we have been getting more and more inquiries on the ETF’s and on how to play the shiny yellow stuff directly. When we see the media covering any topic with this frenzy and traders getting more and more interested, history and calm dictate that an inflection point has been reached. Following this inflection point is almost certainly what will be a sharp move in either direction. Gold breached the $1,000.00 threshold Friday as panic set further and further in, so in theory we could either be at $1,200.00 or $800.00 with a near-equal probability in just a few months.

For starters, let’s go ahead and get the “why do you think $1,200.00 or $800.00 is imminent?” question addressed. Every time you see major inflections like this, there is either the panic buying or the crescendo selling. Oil is the best and most recent example of this. When oil was trading north of $90.00 for the first time and everyone was scared of $100.00 oil, it became a chasing game and a game based upon speculation rather than a game based upon reality. We had many traders calling for $120.00 and we had many oil companies saying that anything north of $75.00 did not make sense to them. So use the $100.00.00 level as the key pivot. It turned out that both the traders and the oil companies were right. It also turned out that they were both wrong. Oil went to twice what many of those oil companies thought was a peak intrinsic value. And in just six months or so it was back to half of that same “intrinsic value” of $75.00.

Gold may be a perfect hedge against inflation. But what you are witnessing today is that gold is also a pure hedge against fear. There is fear of nationalizing some of the major banks. There is a fear that the DJIA could go to 6,000 and the S&P 500 could go to under 700.00. There is a fear that unemployment will hit double-digit levels. And there is a fear that our massive and nasty recession is going to be the modern day version of the 1930’s. These are currently all real fears, and this has not yet happened. A year ago the DJIA was north of 12,000 and the S&P 500 was north of 1,300.00. The closing levels yesterday were 7,365.67 on the DJIA and the S&P 500 closed at 770.05.

Yesteryear’s $1,000.00 gold was inflation related trading. Today’s $1,000.00 gold is the hedge of fear. Again, we are merely saying that this $1,000.00 mark is an inflection point. The cases for $800.00 or $1,200.00 are equally as easy to make. OK, so you got the history lesson and you have the most basic explanation for why gold is where it is.

But there is another issue affecting the price of gold today. Exchange traded funds and exchange traded notes. Investors and traders are buying the hell out of these. These ETF’s and ETN’s have to in turn go into the spot market and futures markets and buy the shiny yellow stuff. We have seen some figures showing that there could be as much as $100.00 or $200.00 extra in the price of gold because of the ETF’s and ETN’s buying it up. That number is probably impossible to give with any certainty, and you have to always use the notion that things are worth what the market is willing to pay for them. So whether gold is overvalued or undervalued, the value IS almost $1,000.00 today. This is also happening at a time when the banks and hedge funds that would have been buying can only do it with minimal leverage rather than the massive leverage used just a year ago.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is the mother load of all gold ETF’s. It tracks the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the trust expenses of course. It holds gold and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold. For fair measure, you can usually take the ratio at one-tenth to see where the price of spot gold happens to be. There are then the trust fees and the discrepancy of time and whichever direction the wind blows that factor in on its actual pricing. This closed at $97.80 Friday vs. $993.20 in spot gold. Again, not a perfect 1:10 ratio, but close enough. There are also large discrepancies in the actual market cap: Yahoo Finance shows $24.93 billion as this ETF market cap, and Google Finance shows $27.47 billion. The SPDR site itself shows a market cap of $24.891 billion. This one is massive regardless. To show how much of a bogey it is, it trades over 16 million shares on an average day, but it traded over 43 million shares Friday and on February 11 it traded some 55 million shares. On two different days in September its volume was north of 60 million shares.

Then there is the schizophrenic gold ETF that is supposed to employ TWO-TIMES leverage on gold. The Ultra Gold ProShares (NYSE: UGL) seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar p.m. fixing price for delivery in London. The difference here between this is that it has to use “financial instruments”… swap agreements, forward contracts, and futures and options contracts. So besides the fact that it aims for twice the performance, it has an extra measure of added volatility in its trading. ProShares lists its net asset value premium and discount as having been roughly -2.0% to as high as +6.0%. It noted Friday’s level was a premium of $0.44. It trades over 200,000 shares per day, but it traded over 664,000 yesterday and it saw some 882,600 shares trade hands on FEB 17. As gold is on highs, this one is too.

There are also two ETN’s which essentially offset each other. PowerShares employs more DOUBLE-LEVERAGE ETN’s. The PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE: DZZ) and the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSE: DGP) are the leveraged instruments. The PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: DGZ) is just the inverse, just… The average volume on these can be lower as well. “DZZ” traded over 1.6 million shares Friday, more than double its normal volume. “DGP” traded over 4.2 million shares Friday, almost twice its normal volume. DGZ traded over 38,000 shares Friday, about 150% of normal volume.

One gold ETF that is not keeping up with the shiny yellow stuff is the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX). While it closed up almost 4% at $37.03 Friday, its 52-week trading range is $15.83 to $56.87. This one tracks the Gold Miners Index in proportion to the company weighting in the index, so it invests in the common stocks of global gold miners which are not all US-based companies. Our most recent data shows that Barrick Gold, Goldcorp, and Newmont account for almost 35% of the entire ETF. Its 25 top holdings also account for about 97.8% of the entire ETF. It trades an average of over 8.5 million shares, and it saw over 19.5 million shares trade hands Friday.

We are not going to give trade set-ups here for how you can bet on $1,200.00 or $800.00 gold. That will either be done tomorrow or in our newsletters. And early this week we’ll show you how and why many of the more speculative gold stocks have not been tracking the price of the shiny yellow stuff.

JON C. OGG
February 21, 2009

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

OCBC offers scrip dividend (ST)

OCBC's fourth quarter results are broadly in line with the lower earnings reported by DBS Group last Friday.

Its core earnings for October to December fell a staggering 41 per cent to $250 million even though it managed to grow the income it got from its core banking business by 28 per cent to $783 million.

This is due mainly to a sharp 44 per cent drop in non-interest income to $259 million and a big jump in provisions for bad loans to $243 million from a mere $13 million in the same period last year.

Rather than do a rights issue, it plans to reactivate its scrip dividend scheme and give shareholders the option to receive the final payout of 14 cents a share in the form of shares. It is sweetening the move by setting the issue price for the new shares at a 10 per cent discount to the average closing price of OCBC between the ex-dividend date and the book closure date.

If all investors take up the dividend in the form of scrips, the bank can retain $437 million in capital - a tidy sum not to be sniffed at. Given the current depressed level of its share price - it now trades at a six-year low - some investors may well take up the offer.


SGX - Trading idea (AmFraser)

As the STI is likely to rebound significantly in the event of test of 1600-1610 strong support, SGX which has been holding up well above $5 since Jan 28, should be rebounding around current levels.

In fact it could be a rare chance to pick up the stock whose 7-day RSI is below the 30 buy signal line, which only took place at the time of October and November respective lows of $4.15 and $4.31.

In addition SGX has also dipped briefly below the last Bollinger band today which had also taken place for 3 days each in Oct/Nov.

The cautious trader may want to wait for another couple of days for it to stay below the lower band. As yesterday marked the first day of sharp fall after range trading between $5.02 and $5.28 for the last 3 weeks, the trading chance may be gone if traders wait for the stock to fall below today’s $4.77 low.

On the other hand, with break of strong 1640-1670 STI support and the Dow just a whisker away from last year’s intra-day low of 7449, SGX may be vulnerable to selling pressure.

But last year’s 1600 closing low is unlikely to give way at the first test and the market should rebound back to 1660-80 in the next few days and SGX too should be back to above $5. Resistance at $5.22

Venture Corp: FY08 Results Preview - HOLD (Kim Eng)

Previous Day Closing price: $4.03
Recommendation: HOLD (maintained)
Target price: $4.64 (reduced from $5.22)
Yield: 2007 - 14.5%, 2008F - 13.7%

We expect 4Q08 revenue to have fallen 5% yoy to $913m, bringing full year revenue to $3.79b, down 2%. If Venture decides to write off its remaining CDO exposure of $90.7m once and for all, full year net profit is forecast to be $112.5m (implying a 4Q loss of $51m). Excluding any mark-to-market, our full year forecast will be $199m implying 4Q profit of $36.7m, down 51% yoy. Its equity stake in DMX (investment cost $82.5m) could also be impaired but has not been assumed in our forecast.

Based on our pre-MTM FY08 forecast of $199m, Venture currently trades at 5.6x, below the sector average of 7.0x. However, we do not think the stock is undervalued. We note that our forecast is lower than consensus of $231m, which seems rather high given that 9M08 profit was only $162m, implying a tall order profit of $72m in 4Q08. As such, we reckon the stock is already fairly priced. Maintain Hold.

Indo Agri: BUY (Kim Eng)

Previous Day Closing price: $0.555
Recommendation: BUY (maintained)
Target price: $1.65 (maintained)

Indo Agri has announced a “noncash” writedown of Rp663 billion, or around S$85.6m, arising from the changes in fair values of biological assets for 4Q08 and FY08. To recap, the reporting of gain or loss arising from the changes in fair values of biological assets is in accordance with SFRS 41 of the Singapore tax code. We emphasize that the write-down is non-cash and nonoperational in nature. IndoAgri expects to remain profitable in FY08.

ST Engineering FY08 Results - BUY (Kim Eng)

Previous Day Closing price: $2.06
Recommendation: BUY (maintained)
Target price: $3.60 (maintained)

STE recorded a FY08 net profit of S$473.6m from FY07’s S$503.5m, which included an impairment charge for investments of S$25.9m. Stripping this out, net profit was in line with our forecasts, and flat YoY. STE has also proposed a final dividend of 12.8cts per share, and coupled with the interim dividend of 3ct per share, STE has continued its policy of paying out 100% of reported earnings (including its impairment charge) as dividends, with a dividend yield at 7.7%. Return on equity was maintained at an impressive 30%.

Suntec REIT: Moody's Outlook Negative

DJ MARKET TALK: Suntec REIT May Slip; Moody's Outlook Negative

0059 GMT [Dow Jones] Suntec REIT (T82U.SG) may slip after Moody's rating agency changed outlook to negative from stable. Moody's says, "the negative outlook change reflects Moody's view that Suntec is faced with considerable medium-term uncertainties due to the expected continued weakening of the Singapore economy and office property market." Adds reduced tenant demand, moderating rents, declining asset values also a factor. Rating agency also concerned that REIT's liquidity profile depends on successful refinancing of sizable debts maturing Dec. 2009, says refinancing likely more challenging in light of weak financial markets, risk aversion among lenders. Pre-open order book quotes show selling interest down to S$0.575, buying interest heaviest at S$0.58; shares closed flat at S$0.595 yesterday. (KIG)

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Midas Holdings: Initiation Report - BUY (Kim Eng)

Previous day closing price: $0.525
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: $0.69
Yield: 2007 - 3.8%, 2008F - 2.9%

Midas established a strong presence in the highly specialised aluminium alloy train profiles market in the PRC within a short span. Despite being a late entrant, it has secured an impressive 80%-market share for components that are used in high-speed train/metro bodies. It is also the only PRC supplier certified by all top three global train manufacturers: Alstom, Siemens and Bombardier.

Due to its prudent stance and effective capital management, Midas has been in a net cash position since its listing despite paying attractive and regular dividends. This will allow the group to fund its expansion plans for the next growth phase, including capex plans of S$85m.

With FY09 being a year of consolidation for Midas as its 3rd production line and downstream fabrication activities come onboard, we have used FY10 estimated profits in our SOTP approach. We value Midas at 12X its net core earnings and 15X NPRT net profits. Our target price of S$0.69 will provide a 31.4% upside.

Singapore Airlines: Company Update - BUY (Kim Eng)

Previous Day Closing price: $10.44
Recommendation: BUY (maintained)
Target price: $13.20 (reduced from S$14.40)
Yield: 2008 - 9.6%, 2009F - 6.2%

We forecast passenger loads to decline by 6% in FY10, following no growth for FY09, while we peg cargo’s decline at 7%, following FY09’s 10% decline. For yields, we have reduced our FY10 and FY11 assumption of passenger yields to 10.5cts/pkm, and cargo at 35cts/ltk. Given that the outlook for air travel remains weak, we anticipate that jet fuel prices will correspondingly stay low. Coupled with cost reductions, the net effect is that we are reducing our FY10 forecast by 35% to S$1,082.5m.

The market has been anticipating a slowdown for SIA – however, we still see value, as it is trading below its trough Price to Book of 0.85x, at 0.8x currently. However, in line with our earnings reduction, we have reduced our price target to S$13.20 from S$14.40, or 1x FY09 Price to Book.

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust 3QFY09 Results - BUY (Kim Eng)

Previous Day Closing price: $0.52
Recommendation: BUY (maintained)
Target price: $0.84
Yield: 2008 - 13.6%; 2009F - 13.5%

3Q09 cash earnings increased significantly to S$20.3m compared to the S$1.1m in 2Q09. Cash earnings for 9M09 amounted to S$39.1m, representing 78% of our full year forecast. The Group will pay a DPU of 1.75 cts for 3Q09, representing a 42% payout from cash earnings for the quarter, and expects to meet its DPU commitment of 7 cts for FY09.

The underlying businesses continued to be cash generative. City Gas contributed the bulk of the increase in cash earnings due to the lower fuel costs this quarter and a 7.7% yoy increase in the volume of gas sold. The gas tariffs have been adjusted from 1 Feb 2009 to reflect the lower fuel costs. 75% of cash earnings for the quarter were attributable to City Gas.

The Group turned in a net loss after tax of S$21.2m due mainly due to a fair value loss on the hedging agreement (FIRD) linked to Basslink. In view of falling interest rates in Australia, the management is managing its exposure to interest rate movements below the benchmark rate by purchasing an interest rate floor for an over-hedged portion of the FIRD.

Group NAV/unit was $0.11 compared to $0.52 as at Sep-08, dragged down by negative hedging reserves of $210m mainly related to the interest rate hedging agreement with Hydro Tasmania on a notional debt level of A$625m. The 3-month bank bill rate, which declined about 40% between Mar and Dec-08, resulted in the huge movement in the fair value of the hedge. The depreciation of the A$ against the S$ between the two periods has also caused the reduction in NAV. Excluding the reserves, NAV is $0.60.

The DPU commitment of 1.75 cts for 4Q09 remains intact. The board has not committed to any DPU guidance beyond FY09. However, surplus cash accumulated so far is sufficient to cover DPU of 1.75 cts for the next four quarters. The downtrend in the A$ interest rate may widen the hedging reserves and result in a negative equity, but our valuation remains supported by stable cash flow from the businesses. With a forward yield of 13.5%, we maintain our Buy recommendation.

UBS cuts DPU forecasts for retail Reits by 30%

Business Times - 17 Feb 2009
UBS cuts DPU forecasts for retail Reits by 30%
It sees retail sales here sliding 4-5%; rents falling due to space oversupply
By UMA SHANKARI

(SINGAPORE) Retail sales here could slide 4-5 per cent this year, says UBS Investment Research, which has also cut its distribution forecasts for Singapore's retail trusts by up to 30 per cent.

After several downgrades, UBS economists now expect Singapore's GDP to shrink 3 per cent and inflation to fall to 0-1.5 per cent this year, saying that this will hit retail spending and rents.

In the past, retail sales correlated with GDP growth, UBS says. In the 2001 recession, they weakened 2.2 per cent, in line with a GDP contraction of 2.3 per cent. And rents in the central area fell 19 and 14 per cent in the 1998 and 2001 recessions respectively.

'As a recession of minus-3 to minus-4 per cent is expected for 2009, we expect retail sales to fall around 4-5 per cent before recovering to 3 per cent a year in 2010-2012,' UBS says in a report issued on Friday last week.

Previously, when retail sales declined during recessions, the supply of new retail space was limited, providing support for rents, UBS says. But, as well as the current weak economic climate, there is an unprecedented supply of new retail space coming up, especially in the Orchard Road area.

UBS reckons overall retail space supply could rise 11 per cent in 2009-2011, with Orchard Road supply up by 37 per cent.

'As a result, we now expect retail signing rents to fall 8 per cent in 2009-2010 in the suburban areas, and around 23 per cent in 2009-2010 in the Orchard Road area,' it says.

So far, Singapore-listed real estate investment trusts (S-Reits) have not seen a substantial drop in retail sales at their malls, UBS notes.

But discretionary sales could deteriorate, it says. 'We expect the impact to be limited for the suburban portfolios but materially negative for central area malls, mainly due to high supply.' Based on the current trade mix, UBS reckons suburban malls will be less affected by weakening retail sales.

With this in mind, it has cut its distribution per unit (DPU) forecasts for Singapore retail Reits by up to 30 per cent this year and 40 per cent in 2012.

UBS has 'buy' calls on four retail S-Reits - CapitaMall Trust, Suntec Reit, Starhill Global Reit and Frasers Centrepoint Trust.

F&N: Balance-sheet risks mounting - UNDERFORM (CIMB)

1Q09 core net profit of S$71.4m forms 17% of our full-year forecast as lower property bookings and weaker dairy income due to the melamine scare proved to be drags. We believe results were below consensus as well.

Net gearing at 1Q09 was 0.66x, within the upper bound of its big-cap property peers. Potential write-downs of F&N’s UK and Australia properties could lift this ratio. While we take comfort in guidance that refinancing for over S$1bn of the S$1.7bn worth of maturing debt has been secured, risks of off-balance sheet commitments to re-capitalise FCOT remain, with the latter needing to retire over S$620m of maturing debt in 2009. A short-term loan of S$70m has already been given to the REIT. It remains to be seen if FCOT can successfully monetise its Japanese and Australian assets to pare down debt.

We lower our FY09-11 core EPS estimates by 0-19% to factor in slower inventory turnover and F&B income. We also reduce our end-CY09 RNAV by 13% to S$3.80 to account for: 1) potential capital drains to recapitalise FCOT; 2) lower valuations for its stakes in listed entities; and 3) lower ASPs. We continue to peg our target price at a 30% discount to RNAV to reflect its holding company structure and rising risks of asset write-downs. Accordingly, our target price drops to S$2.66 from S$3.09.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Suntec REIT: Target cut to S$0.73 - BUY (DB)

DJ MARKET TALK: DB Cuts Suntec REIT Target To S$0.73; Keeps Buy

0105 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Deutsche Bank cuts Suntec REIT target price to S$0.73 from S$1.00; maintains Buy rating. Broker says new target price reflects "dilution scenario" based on assumption REIT will issue new equity to help refinance debt maturing this year. But thinks refinancing risks already priced in; "we believe that dilution for an equity raising to refinance S$825 million of debt expiring this year is priced in, and a successful refinancing could lift this overhang." Adds weakening retail sales, declining office rents will affect REIT's portfolio, but this is also already reflected in low valuation with REIT offering 15.7% FY09 yield, deep 69% discount to book net asset value. Shares down 0.8% at S$0.605. (KIG)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 16, 2009 20:05 ET (01:05 GMT)

DBS: 4Q08 results update - Hold (Kim Eng)

Previous Day Closing price: $8.39
Recommendation: Hold (maintained)
Target price: $10.10 (reduced from $10.60)
Yield: 2008 - 9.5%, 2009F - 4.2%

DBS posted a bottom line of $295m (-22% q-o-q; -40% y-o-y) including one-time charges from staff restructuring and impairment costs. Excluding one-time items, net profit was $383m in 4Q08, slightly below our expectations of $391m. The variance was mainly due to weaker than expected fee-based income. The board proposed a fourth-quarter dividend of 14 cents per share over the enlarged share base.

We have reduced our FY09 and FY10 earnings estimates by 15-20% to reflect higher provisions. Our target price is lowered to $10.10 based on FY09 BVPS (book value per share). The weak economic outlook and earnings uncertainties ahead will likely continue to depress share price. Maintain Hold.

Fraser & Neave 1Q09 Results - BUY (Kim Eng)

Previous day closing price: $2.90
Recommendation: Buy (maintained)
Target price: $3.36 (reduced from $3.95)
Yield: 2008 - 4.3%, 2009F - 3.5%

1Q09 profit plunged 50% yoy to $52m, mainly due to fair value revaluations of its property business. Negative revaluation of overseas projects carved out almost $39m in profit, although this was offset by $37m in revaluation and exceptional gains. Operationally, earnings fell only 6% yoy to $86m. The F&B business, except Dairy, stayed resilient, with exceptional growth from Breweries.

F&B PBIT rose 9% yoy to 50% of group profits, led by soft drinks (+19%) and breweries (+13%). Margins improved on higher volumes, price increases and in certain countries such as Papua New Guinea and China, currency appreciation as well. However, dairies were hit by lower export sales and lower domestic sales in Thailand, due to the melamine scare and weaker economic conditions.

We have cut FY09 forecast by 26% and RNAV to $3.36. However, we reckon F&N’s pursuit of a business mix rebalancing to even out property volatility could yield some catalysts. Further, we reckon at the current share price, further fair value revaluations have been accounted for. Maintain BUY.

Friday, February 13, 2009

ComfortDelgro: Positioning for the long term - BUY (DBS)

4Q/FY08 net profit were within expectations. But, a lower dividend payout at 52% versus past 4 years was a surprise. It seems like management is conserving cash for acquisitions, which should be beneficial over the long term, given its track record. Maintain Buy, TP: S$1.57.

The Group declared a final dividend of 2.4cents, equating to a 52% payout, which was below our expectations of 70% and the range in the last 4 years (75% - 85%). We think management is conserving cash for overseas acquisition opportunities, particularly in Australia and China.

The recent Budget measures will yield S$35m for the Group and will be passed on as rebates and the widely anticipated fare reductions later this year. We do not expect the fare reduction to have a significant impact on the Group’s bottomline.

Whilst the market may be disappointed by a lower dividend payout versus its historical average, we think this may be beneficial for the Group in the long-term if they are able to deliver on accretive acquisitions to reinforce its overseas growth. We maintain our Buy recommendation with a TP: S$1.57 based on 15x FY09F earnings.

COMFORTDELGRO - BUY (DMG)

BUY: Maintain
Price: S$1.32
Target: S$1.78
Yield: 2007 - 7.7%, 2008 - 3.8%

ComfortDelgro reported 2008 net profit of S$200.1m, down 10.3% YoY. This is in line with our S$198.3m expectation and consensus’ S$195m.

WTI price was fallen from 2008 average of US$100/bbl to the current US$36/bbl. Although ComfortDelgro has hedged 43% of its 2009 diesel requirements (at higher-than-current WTI prices), there will be cost savings from the balance 57% that is unhedged. We are assuming effective 2009 WTI price of US$63/bbl for ComfortDelgro, which will lower its 2009 energy costs by 30% from 2008 levels. We expect 2010 earnings to rise further on our assumption of 2010 WTI price of US$45/bbl.

ComfortDelgro declared a final dividend of 2.4S¢/share, giving a FY08 payout ratio of 52%. This is sharply lower than FY07’s 85% (which includes special dividend). The market is likely to be disappointed with this. Looking ahead, management said that they will payout more than 50% of its earnings.

Comfortdelgro - OUTPERFORM (CIMB)

Previous day closing price: $1.32
Recommendation: OUTPERFORM (maintained)
Target price: $1.84 (reduced from $1.97)

4Q08 net profit of S$44.8m (-6.3% yoy) was marginally above our estimate but ahead of consensus. FY08 net profit of S$200m was 2.3% and 6.4% higher than our forecast and consensus respectively. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected operating expenses in 4Q08. FY08 pretax margins slipped to 9.7% from 11.2% in FY07, but were steady yoy at 9.6% in 4Q08. Revenue fell 1.7% yoy to S$760m, led by forex translation of A$ and ₤. Overseas operations contributed 43% of revenue in FY08. A final tax-exempt dividend of S$0.024 was declared.

Bus revenue dipped 0.3% yoy to S$1,533m in FY08, due to the translation impact of a weak A$ and ₤ against S$. However, strong growth came from rail (+22.1% yoy), diesel sales (+31.9% yoy), automotive engineering (+40.3%) and vehicle inspection (+16.5%). Excluding the negative forex translation impact of S$140m, revenue would have risen S$244m (+8.2% yoy). A positive translation of S$133m from operating expenses mitigated this. The net forex translation impact for the group was a manageable loss of S$7.1m.

We adjust our FY09-10 forecasts by +4.2% to -5.5% to reflect retreating energy prices, higher ridership and forex translation. We also introduce FY11 forecasts. Due to our earnings changes, our DCF-derived target price falls to S$1.84 from S$1.97 on an unchanged WACC of 11%. Management guided for a minimum 50% dividend payout and no special dividends for FY09, translating to a prospective CY09 dividend yield of 4.4%. Maintain Outperform on the back of its defensive earnings.